A new joint report by World Bank, FAO and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) entitled "Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture” looks at prospects for fisheries and aquaculture and suggests that aquaculture will provide close to two thirds of global food fish consumption by 2030. It highlights the continuing role of China as a major driver of aquaculture demand, and charts the decline in the relative importance of capture fisheries.
The study employs IFPRI’s IMPACT model to generate projections of global fish supply and demand. IMPACT covers the world in 115 model regions for a range of agricultural commodities, to which fish and fish products are added for this study. The model projects that the total fish supply will increase from 154 million tons in 2011 to 186 million tons in 2030. While this total fish supply will likely be equally split between capture and aquaculture by 2030, the model predicts that 62 percent of food fish will be produced by aquaculture by 2030. Beyond 2030, aquaculture will likely dominate future global fish supply.
The report further discusses imbalances in regional supply and regional demand for fish that arises from the intensive trade of fish in international markets. The report also highlights the importance of understanding the context-specific drivers of fish supply and demand in particular countries and regions.
Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture, 2013, World Bank
For more studies on aquaculture see here.