Can healthy diets be achieved worldwide in 2050 without farmland expansion?
This paper adds to the literature on modelling agricultural land-use demand in 2050 given a growing global population, climate change-induced changes in yields, and projections for as-yet unrealised technological improvements. The main innovation of this study is to constrain the amount of dietary change that can be included in the model. Consequently, this model includes much more regional dietary variation than do other such projections, and much higher ASF consumption than many. The authors find that, contrary to previous studies, several regions cannot achieve food security without expanding agricultural land use. In particular, more pasture land is needed, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In a wider group of regions, producing sufficient food without increasing agricultural land use only appears possible if we assume an optimistic scenario for increasing yields